Monthly Portfolio Update – November 2025

Far-called, our navies melt away.

Rudyard Kipling, Recessional

This is my one hundred and eighth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,000,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $103,500 (in 2025 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,400,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$974,253
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$49,217
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$85,131
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$94,711
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$657,871
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$999,852
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$335,608
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$285,379
Bitcoin$1,546,572
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)$3,566,022
(-$22,625)
Total portfolio value$5,112,594
(-$342,107)

Asset allocation

Australian shares27.1%
Global shares28.2%
Emerging market shares1.0%
International small companies1.3%
Total international shares30.6%
Total shares57.6% (-22.4%)
Australian bonds3.1%
International bonds3.4%
Total bonds6.5% (+1.5%)
Gold5.6%
Bitcoin30.3%
Gold and alternatives35.8% (+20.8%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

The portfolio fell this month by around 6.3 per cent or $340,000 – the sixth largest falls in percentage terms on record, and the second largest in nominal dollars.

This was overwhelmingly due to a sharp fall in the price of Bitcoin, which fell 17 per cent, while Australian equity losses also contributed at the margin.

As a result, the financial portfolio (excluding Bitcoin) suffered its first reverses since March of this year.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

Market movements this month have been driven by weakening confidence in future US, and Australian, interest rate easings. Another intriguing development has been the continuing unwinding of traditionally low bond yields in Japan, a phenomenon which has exerted a downward pressure on interest rates across global markets over the past decade or longer.

Australian equities fell by 2.7 per cent, and global equities also contracted slightly by 0.2 per cent. Gold continued to perform strongly, up around 4.8 per cent over the month, to the highest level recorded in the portfolio.

This month also saw some small portfolio adjustments, falling into the category of simplification and streamlining.

The smaller individual share parcels held in Telstra, IAG and NIB have been eliminated, and proceeds reinvested in the broader ETF portfolio, through an additional investment in the Vanguard global shares ETF (VGS).

While representing my first equity market investments – in the case of Telstra – the holdings were essentially immaterial compared to the rest of the portfolio, making up collectively 0.4 per cent of the portfolio by value, while representing 3 of 13 separate portfolio holdings held at the beginning of the month.

A minor effect of the changes is to effectively reduce a slight overweighting to these directly held equities at the portfolio level. As an example, the within Australian equities ETF holdings of Telstra (of around $30,000) are around ten times larger than the direct holding which has been exited.

These changes continue the journey of simplification underway for the past year, through which the total number of individually managed portfolio holdings has fallen from 17 to 10, or by around 40 per cent.

The purpose of these changes is to simplify record-keeping, portfolio tracking and management of holdings that essentially had no prospect of positively affecting risk-adjusted returns. The exercise is not costless, as an indication, the reinvestment of these funds back into even low cost ETFs will incur an additional net cost of $23 per year.

Further future simplification is possible, but will need be be considered carefully from a capital gains tax management and efficiency perspective.

Celestial fix: the ‘all assets’ perspective on asset allocation and passive income estimates

This record is focused on reporting on the goal of building and maintaining a portfolio capable of supporting a chosen passive income goal enabling financial independence over decades ahead.

Beyond the narrow financial independence portfolio, however, there are some assets which inevitably and increasingly come into view as relevant for future planning.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – November 2025”

Monthly Portfolio Update – October 2025

Wealth is the number of things one can do without.

Dostoyevsky

This is my one hundred and seventh monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,000,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $103,500 (in 2025 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,400,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$982,388
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$49,545
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$85,573
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$94,830
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$676,504
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$976,970
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$344,971
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,601
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$9,958
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$9,048
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$272,257
Bitcoin$1,866,054
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Total portfolio value$5,454,701
(+$9,064)

Asset allocation

Australian shares26.4%
Global shares26.1%
Emerging market shares1.0%
International small companies1.2%
Total international shares28.3%
Total shares54.7% (-25.3%)
Australian bonds2.9%
International bonds3.2%
Total bonds6.1% (+1.1%)
Gold5.0%
Bitcoin34.2%
Gold and alternatives39.2% (+24.2%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

This month saw the overall portfolio only move marginally, rising $9,000, or around 0.2 per cent, compared to last month.

A notable feature of this month was the financial portfolio composed of traditional assets performing relatively strongly, registering gains of around $63,000. This occurred alongside falls in Bitcoin holdings, where prices declined by 2.8 per cent.

This is a continuation of a trend. The past seven months has represent the largest single period of unbroken expansion in the financial portfolio, taking the financial portfolio close to $0.5 million – or nearly 15 per cent – higher.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

By far the most remarkable movements over the past few weeks have been increases – and then falls in – in the value of gold holdings. Of itself, this magnitude of monthly movements is a highly unusual event.

Gold movements over the past month have echoed those experienced in earlier periods across the mid to late 1970s, a period which featured significant global disruption, high inflation, and heightened economic uncertainty.

In some senses, these previous periods could be considered the turbulent precursors of the macroeconomic regime that last from the early 1980s to either 2008, or perhaps 2020. Features of this period were generally declining real rates, a reduction in the role of gold as a central reserve bank asset, and generally high equity returns.

What is unclear is what new regime may be being ushered into existence by, for example, the increasing pace of gold purchases from central banks, and a parallel reduction in the role of US Treasury bonds as a reserve asset, a trend accelerated by the freezing of US Treasury holdings in the Russian central bank across 2022-23.

The price changes in gold over recent month have already disrupted one long standing verity of asset allocation – with gold moving from a historically low return asset, to an asset that has, for example, clearly out-performed Australian equity markets over some substantial timeframes on a total return basis, i.e. 15 and 20 years.

By contrast, over the month, Australian equities fell marginally over the month (-0.5 per cent) while global equities advanced solidly, with appreciation of around 3.4 per cent.

This month once again a further investment in the Vanguard global shares ETF (VGS) was made, in accordance with my previously outlined strategy of gradually reinvesting excess distributions and cash across the next 14 months.

Clearing bearing: trends in financial portfolio asset allocation from 2007 to 2025

Recently a major investment bank commented on the recent rapid increases in the prices of gold and Bitcoin, labelling investors as engaging in ‘the debasement trade’.

This trade was termed in that way as a reference to investors seeking to avoid ‘fiat’ currencies or any other reproducible paper assets, and instead engaging in a scramble for truely scarce, limited assets.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – October 2025”

Monthly Portfolio Update – September 2025

The grey tide and the sullen coast,

The menace of the urgent hour,

The single island, like a tower

Dorothy L Sayers

This is my one hundred and sixth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,000,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $103,500 (in 2025 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,400,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$971,730
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$49,066
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$84,845
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$94,343
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$679,755
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$932,001
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$346,555
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,569
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$10,345
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$8,892
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$261,613
Bitcoin$1,919,923
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)
Total portfolio value$5,445,637
(+$125,870)

Asset allocation

Australian shares26.4%
Global shares25.2%
Emerging market shares1.0%
International small companies1.2%
Total international shares27.4%
Total shares53.8% (-26.2%)
Australian bonds2.9%
International bonds3.2%
Total bonds6.1% (+1.1%)
Gold4.8%
Bitcoin35.3%
Gold and alternatives40.1% (+25.1%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

This month the portfolio expanded strongly, growing 2.4 per cent, or around $126,000.

The one key driver of this was a remarkably sharp increase in the value of gold holdings, which increased by 12 per cent over the course of the month.

The underlying financial portfolio also expanded registering its sixth consecutive month of positive growth, to reach just over $3.5 million.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

Australian equities incurred small falls through the month, with negative returns of around 1 per cent. By contrast, unhedged international equities performed better, with a capital gain of just over 1.4 per cent.

The continued outstanding performance of gold coincided with some falls in US interest rates, and increased buying from global central banks, who are steadily rebuilding their gold reserves. This has made it the strongest performing ‘traditional’ financial asset class over the past five years in the portfolio, on a total returns basis. What is playing out in gold markets is in some ways a once in a generation change in valuation, returning to real inflation-adjusted prices last experienced in the late 1970s.

Bonds continued to eke out some modest gains, with a return of around 0.6 per cent this month. Over the past two years, portfolio bond holdings have been recovering, with a return of 6 per cent each year, after earlier steep capital losses.

This month a further investment in the Vanguard global shares ETF (VGS) was made, in accordance with my previously discussed plans to gradually reinvest excess distributions and cash across the next 16 months.

The other major activity has been the rearrangement of the placement of the one year of cash reserves set aside as part of the financial independence ‘pre-conditions’ for ceasing any paid employment. After some negative changes to bonus interest conditions to Ubank’s savings accounts, these have been moved to a simpler product from another bank provider.

Parallel rules: reviewing the record of taxable investment income from 2007

This month I collated annual tax return information for the last financial year for my tax agent and submitted it.

This tax return data provides an alternate series and perspective through which to view the progress towards financial independence. Over time, I have used this as a form of loose ‘cross-check’ on other data, such as the regularly updated portfolio income record.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – September 2025”

Monthly Portfolio Update – August 2025

You must live in the present, launch yourself on every wave, find your eternity in each moment. Fools stand on their island of opportunities and look toward another land. There is no other land;
there is no other life but this.

Thoreau

This is my one hundred and fifth monthly portfolio update. I complete this regular update to check progress against my goal.

Portfolio goal

My objective is to maintain a portfolio of at least $3,000,000. This should be capable of producing an annual income from total portfolio returns of about $103,500 (in 2025 dollars).

This portfolio objective is based on an assumed safe withdrawal rate of 3.45 per cent.

A secondary focus will be maintaining the minimum equity target of $2,400,000.

Portfolio summary

Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund$962,986
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund$48,665
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund$84,215
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund$93,886
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS)$684,230
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS)$907,183
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)$349,908
Telstra shares (TLS)$2,606
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG)$11,048
NIB Holdings shares (NHF)$9,240
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX)$232,696
Bitcoin$1,849,104
Plenti Capital Notes$84,000
Financial portfolio value (excluding Bitcoin)
Total portfolio value$5,319,767
(-$106,105)

Asset allocation

Australian shares27.1%
Global shares25.3%
Emerging market shares1.0%
International small companies1.2%
Total international shares27.5%
Total shares54.6% (-25.4%)
Australian bonds3.0%
International bonds3.2%
Total bonds6.2% (+1.2%)
Gold4.4%
Bitcoin34.8%
Gold and alternatives39.1% (+24.1%)

Presented visually, the pie chart below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the full portfolio.

Comments

The portfolio moved backwards by a significant amount this month, with an overall contraction of 2.0 per cent, or around $106,000.

This was principally due to a modest fall in the price of Bitcoin – with a loss of around 9 per cent across the month. The financial portfolio, in contrast, grew – achieving its highest ever level. Total equity holdings in the portfolio also expanded to the highest level so far, to sit at just over $2.9 million.

The chart below sets out the performance of both the full and ‘financial assets only’ portfolios since the commencement of the journey.

Australian equities performed strongly this month, growing by around 3 per cent, significantly outpacing the growth of 0.7 per cent in global equities.

Gold holdings have also experienced growth through the month, with prices advancing around 2 per cent. Bonds also grew in value by a small amount, around 0.5 per cent.

This month a further investment in the Vanguard global shares ETF (VGS) was made, in accordance with my previously discussed plans to gradually reinvest excess distributions and cash across the next 16 months.

Other islands? Assessing trends from 2017 in distributions, expenses and other crossing points

Last month I added a new measure to the previous set of monthly measures of average distribution and expenses, recognising that average portfolio income distributions are an imperfect proxy for the capacity of the portfolio to support financial independence.

Continue reading “Monthly Portfolio Update – August 2025”