We would rather be ruined than changed.W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
- Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
- Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
- Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
- Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
- Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
- Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
- Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
- Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
- NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
- Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
- Secured physical gold – $18 913
- Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
- Bitcoin – $148 990
- Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
- Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
- BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
- Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
- Global shares – 22.0%
- Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
- International small companies – 3.0%
- Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
- Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
- Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
- Australian bonds – 4.7%
- International bonds – 9.4%
- Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
- Gold – 7.7%
- Bitcoin – 8.4%
- Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain’s Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS). This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month.
